Trump’s proposed tariff (rumored to be 20%) will be a hard hit to top Mexican consumable exports like beer, tomatoes, and sugar (all accounted for $4.8 billion in 2015), while providing opportunities for domestic producers like Anheuser-Busch InBev(BUD), General Mills(GIS), WhiteWave Foods Company(WWAV), and Cosan Ltd.(CZZ)(Brazil).
Often overlooked in the Mexican tariff discussion are consumables, which represent billions of dollars to the American consumer. Mexico’s three largest consumable exports (behind petrol) are: beer, tomatoes, and sugar. Trump’s proposed 20% tariff will squeeze Mexican producers of these items while creating opportunities for their American counterparts.
Americans’ taste for Mexican import beers such as Corona, Modelo, and Pacifico stoked a demand to the tune of $2.8 billion dollars in 2015, according the U.N. database. Mexico’s largest beer exporter, Grupo Modelo, will definitely feel the strain from an increased tariff, opening up market share for America’s largest incumbent, Anheuser-Bush InBev(BUD), who currently controls 41.2% of the American beer market according to IBIS World.
A staggering amount of the United States produce imports come from Mexico. Our largest produce dependency from our southern neighbor is Tomatoes, of which 71% sold in the U.S. are imported from Mexico. This looming tariff would mean a surge in tomato prices, which would benefit the largest U.S. tomato producer General Mills(GIS) who recently acquired Muir Glen a large tomato grower in Colorado. Another big name in American produce is White Wave Foods Company(WWAV), whose subsidiary Earthbound Farms is a crop diversified produce grower.
According to the USDA, 15% of all sugar consumed in the U.S. comes from Mexico, in the form of raw sugarcane. One of our other largest sources of imported of sugar is from Brazil, specifically Cosan ltd. which should see a large upside from stronger Mexican regulations.(CZZ)